I've been playing a great deal of sit-n-go's in my spare time and I've come up with a little formula that helps me determine my strategy in the end game when I happen to be the short stack:
H = (S/TB) * P
H is the number of hands I have left; basically, the number of hands I will be dealt before I'm blinded out. S = my stack, TB = total blinds (small blind + big blind), P = number of players left in the tournament.
For example, If I have 1000 in chips, and the blinds are at 100 and 50 with 5 players left in the game, I will have approximately 33 hands before I run out of money (assuming blinds aren't increasing at a tremendous rate). At this point, I think to myself what kind of hands will I go all-in with in an attempt to stay alive? Well, you only get AA 1 out of 220 hands - so I can't just sit around waiting for AA. You get AA, KK 1 out of 110 hands, so I can't wait for that either. You do get any pocket pair 1 out of 16 hands, so I can safely throw away hands until I get some sort of pocket pair (or better) and put all my money in the middle. Even if the person who calls me has AK, i am still a 12:10 favorite! The worst situation is if I get called by a higher pocket pair, at which I'm a 4:1 underdog.
Either way, I think it's a good formula to set up what you want to do late in a tournament with a short stack. You also want to think about how tight the player with the blinds is so you can make a few steals to stay alive. Note that Phil Gordon suggests that you move all-in every single time if you're heads-up, short-stacked, and already have 30% of your chips in pre-flop in the blind, the correct move is always to go all-in, even with 7-2. He proves this with mathematical equities in his article "the right move" (link on the right side of my page).
I haven't read any articles regarding my shortstack formula, and it came to me after I came back multiple times in one night in several mini-tournaments. When I'm playing online, I often bust out my calculator and plug in the numbers really quick to figure out my best options. Any comments or criticisms would be appreciated.
3 comments:
Good job boy! Although for me, it would be very hard to do all those calculations during a tournament....
You can do eet, bro. It's a quick calculation especially after you've done it 5 or so times. It really helped me on the tournaments I entered on New year's. I went from being the short stack to chip leader from a decision based on that formula.
no good, it's full of steam!
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